In a stunning development, one of the leading contenders in Ireland's race for president has quit the campaign, reshaping the political landscape.
Sudden Exit Shakes Up Election Dynamics
Fianna Fáil's Jim Gavin pulled out on Sunday night following revelations about an outstanding payment to a past renter, converting the race into an volatile two-horse race between a centre-right past cabinet member and an autonomous progressive parliamentarian.
Gavin, 54, a newcomer to politics who was parachuted into the election after professional experiences in sports, airline industry and defense, stepped aside after it emerged he had not repaid a excess rental payment of 3,300 euros when he was a lessor about in the mid-2000s, during a period of monetary strain.
"I committed an error that was inconsistent with who I am and the standards I set myself. I am currently resolving the issue," he said. "I have also thought long and hard, regarding the possible effects of the ongoing campaign on the welfare of my loved ones and companions.
"Taking all these considerations onboard, I've chosen to exit from the presidential election contest with right away and rejoin my loved ones."
Contest Reduced to Primary Hopefuls
The biggest shock in a political contest in modern times reduced the field to one candidate, a former cabinet minister who is campaigning for the ruling centre-right party Fine Gael, and another candidate, an outspoken pro-Palestinian voice who is endorsed by a political party and small leftwing opposition parties.
Problem for Leader
The withdrawal also caused a problem for the prime minister and party head, the party chief, who had put his reputation on the line by selecting an inexperienced hopeful over the reservations of associates in the party.
He commented the candidate wished to avoid "cause dispute" to the presidential role and was correct to step down. "Jim has accepted that he committed a mistake in relation to an issue that has come up lately."
Election Challenges
Despite a reputation for capability and achievements in commerce and athletics – under his leadership the Dublin football squad to five straight titles – his campaign had stumbled through missteps that put him at a disadvantage in an survey even before the unpaid debt disclosure.
Party members who had been against choosing Gavin said the fiasco was a "serious miscalculation" that would have "repercussions" – a thinly veiled warning to Martin.
Voting System
The candidate's name may stay on the voting paper in the election on 24 October, which will finish the long service of Michael D Higgins, but the electorate now confronts a binary choice between a centrist establishment candidate and an non-aligned left-leaning candidate. Opinion research conducted ahead of Gavin's exit gave Connolly 32% support and Humphreys 23%, with the former candidate at 15 percent.
According to voting regulations, people pick candidates in order of preference. In case nobody reaches 50% on the first count, the hopeful with the fewest initial choices is removed and their votes are transferred to the next preference.
Likely Support Redistribution
It was expected that should Gavin be removed, the bulk of his support would shift to the other candidate, and the other way around, boosting the chance that a establishment hopeful would secure the presidency for the allied parties.
Role of the Presidency
This office is a mostly representative role but the current and former presidents transformed it into a platform on global issues.
Final Contenders
Connolly, 68, from her home city, would introduce a robust progressive perspective to that legacy. She has assailed neoliberal economics and said the organization constitutes "an integral component" of the Palestinian people. She has charged Nato of militarism and equated Berlin's enhanced defense expenditure to the pre-war era, when Adolf Hitler rearmed the country.
Humphreys, 62, has faced scrutiny over her time in office in administrations that managed a housing crisis. As a Protestant from the northern county, she has also been questioned about her failure to speak Gaelic but commented her religious background could help win over loyalists in the North in a united Ireland.
